Is China Facing a Growth and Debt Crisis?

Posted by on Monday, March 3, 2014 · Leave a Comment 

“Will China Shake the World Again?” is a recent article written by Robert Preston. Preston is the Business Editor for the BBC. The piece discusses China’s ability to sustain its growth, manage its heavy debt positions and avoid a disaster equal to or greater than the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Preston believes China has an “unbalanced economy whose recent sources of growth are not sustainable.”
In 2007-2008 “…the Chinese government unleashed a stimulus programme of mammoth scale: £400bn…growth accelerated… But the sources of growth…have a limited life.” “…China’s growth rate…really looking at 4%.”
“But what makes much of the spending and investment toxic is the way it was financed: there has been an explosion of lending. China’s debts…have increased since 2008 from 125% of GDP to 200%.”
“…investing at that pace…it is a…certainty that much of it will never generate an economic return…debtors unable to meet their obligations…large losses for creditors; the question is not whether this will happen but when, and on what scale.”

Based on my experience working with operating companies in Shanghai and Guangdong, I have to agree. My expectation for China’s future is negative, as their potential for serious growth and continued competitiveness will prove to be very difficult.

Having inspected a number of Chinese owned manufacturing companies in mainland China, it becomes apparent manufacturing knowledge, processes, and systems are woefully behind the times. Contemporary manufacturing in China corresponds to the USA’s 1970 manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, cost increases from higher wages and inefficient operations are to be expected. Also, unfavorable changes in currency valuation will be a factor. This will result in lower growth, employment and capital availability. This will make it far more difficult to service its debts and fund necessary initiatives.

Judging from my visits, the young and educated Chinese appear much more independent, aggressive and spontaneous. It may make its citizens more difficult to control. Social unrest could be a major issue affecting China’s economic development as well.

Click on this link to read Mr. Preston’s article.

Here are some other posts on China:

Is China’s decline permanent?

China to surpass USA as World Leader in manufacturing?

Can Manufacturing Return to the USA?

 

Related posts:

  1. Outsourcing from China – Avoiding this Horror Story
  2. Is China’s decline permanent?
  3. China to surpass USA as World Leader in manufacturing?
  4. Where is China Heading?
  5. Mexico vs. China. Which is the Better Plant Location?

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Reason I wrote my book “Learn to Whisper”

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The reason I wrote “Learn to Whisper”:

My conclusion after operating as a Turnaround Chief Executive Officer for more than twenty-five years is that the majority of this country’s top management is far from first-rate. In fact top management, particularly at the chief executive officer level, is at best average with a large number that can be rated mediocre. This lack of management competence has seen this country’s market leaders lose sizeable market share to foreign manufacturers able to export better quality and lower cost products to the USA. It has seen manufacturing and service operations unnecessarily moved to foreign countries. All of which has negatively affected the economy, severely damaged former blue-chip corporations and seen quality jobs lost.

It is quite common to discover that companies struggling with this inability to compete with foreign companies have been simply mismanaged. The once successful business deteriorated because of an incompetent chief executive officer and weak senior management

Why doesn’t this nation have first-rate management? Inadequate training. Chief executive officers and vice presidents learn “on the job”. A number get promoted based on personality, political connections and drive – not merit. They are not carefully screened for the potential to become successful at managing. For some all that is needed is a well-written resume, the right interviewing style and the inability of a new employer to accurately assess skills, performance and potential.

Compare this to the process doctors go through. From medical school to internship to residency to a senior role after years of education, experience and continuous training their progress and capabilities are constantly monitored even after they become senior in the profession. Generals and Admirals go through a similar protocol. They must prove themselves in low-level assignments before they are judged qualified for senior positions. Unqualified applicants in both professions are culled out. What can be done to improve management competence? Education, on-the-job training and job performance monitoring. My book will educate people on the subject of managing. Its 101 management lessons are separated into the 17 subjects managers need to know.