Are we headed into a recession in 2016-2017?

The decline in the key drivers of economic growth say yes:

Business investment and employment are critical factors in economic growth.

As a result of these negatives:

China’s struggles are a concern. Its growth has consistently slowed. 2015 was its slowest year in 25 years. This is a factor in the global decline in the demand for commodities and the 55% reduction in commodity prices since 2014 negatively affecting capital investment and employment. Unfortunately 2016 growth is difficult to accept as real as it has been stimulated by debt in an economy that is seriously overleveraged.

The USA’s growth prospects are muddled by an apparent decision by one of its major industries – automobiles. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are reportedly not investing in flexible production systems as are its German and Japanese competitors. This is described as: “…technological change that stands to radically reshape the car business.”

Will this result in the Big Three’s costs being higher than its competitors? Probably. It will most likely lead to lower unit sales and lower overhead absorption resulting in lower operating profits, lower cash flows, less capital investment and lower employment.

Adding to the puzzle about General Motors’ viability is its $500 million investment in Lyft – a Uber competitor. Lyft is a business outside of GM’s vehicle manufacturing core. Is GM losing disciplined strategic focus?

Follow-up articles:

Business Insider, May 26, 2016, “Japan’s prime minister is warning world leaders about a ‘Lehman-scale crisis’” He interprets economic data as pointing to the reemergence of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Fox Business, May 26, 2016: Interview with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan: “Greenspan: Western World Headed for a State of Disaster”. “…have a very profound long-term problem of economic growth…(not) on the verge of a market…collapse…”

Leave A Comment



Chief Executive Officer

Executive Chairman

Turnarounds & Operational Restructurings

Adviser to creditors, board of directors or owners

Pre-acquisition & troubled company due diligence evaluations

Develop strategic and operating plans - including Court required plans of reorganization

Acquisition advice and negotiations

Serve as Member Board of Directors

Testify in Federal and State Court


Robert Amter
(347) 316-8410